Workshop Title
The learner is expected to imagine future scenarios
The learner is expected to imagine future scenarios.
- Duration: 4 hours
The listener is expected to be familiar with the concept of building scenarios within different business models. The listener should be able to:
– recognize the potential of different possibilities,
– classify these possibilities according to the potential
– prepare a path to solution for different possible scenarios
This workshop covers 2 activities. The first activity concerns the use of scenarios based on business models and their construction. Tools supporting the creation of scenarios using business models will be discussed later.
This workshop aims to familiarize students with building market scenarios based on the assumptions of business models. This is the scope of knowledge for people who are just starting their adventure with entrepreneurship, as well as for mature entrepreneurs who plan to implement important, sometimes strategic changes in their companies. Two exercises are planned. The first one is an introductory one, during which participants will be able to learn about the factors influencing the usefulness of the scenario building method in planning the company’s operations. On the basis of the second exercise, participants will learn the rules of building a scenario and its practical use, especially in conditions of “discontinuous” changes in the environment. Discontinuous change means a leap between the past and the present, and between the present and the future. Recent years clearly show that we must be prepared for the appearance and effects of discontinuous change. Each of the important factors affecting the company at a given time may change in different ways in the future. Unfortunately, this can be both an advantageous and a disadvantageous way. This multi-directional nature of possible changes entails the necessity to conduct multi-variant analyzes. This is where the usefulness of the scenario method comes in, which allows to capture variants of a discontinuous change. Scenarios may concern the development of the enterprise itself or the environment in which it operates. In particular, the discontinuity of changes in the environment and subsequent crises that have affected entrepreneurs around the world in the last few years have shown that methods such as generating scenarios can be useful in planning the company’s operations.
The workshops will enable the entrepreneur to learn and improve the skills of building scenarios of possible events in the conditions of a turbulent environment. Moreover, gaining the ability to develop an event scenario and its analysis and drawing constructive conclusions will be a great challenge for an entrepreneur or future entrepreneurial adepts.
Step by step instructions for the preparation and implementation of the workshop
Step 1: Introduction to the usefulness of using an event scenario in planning the company’s operations in conditions of turbulent changes in the environment. (PPT).
Step 2: Give participants the worksheet (Appendix 0.2) and ask them to fill out.
Step 3: Give them 15 minutes to give you the essence of creativity.
Step 4: On the basis of available materials, published articles available in the University Library in such databases as: EBSCO, Elselvier and other secondary sources (it is important that they are current and up-to-date), characterize the level of uncertainty of the environment. Use the list of topics given.
Step 5: Discuss whether there is a phenomenon of uncertainty in the analyzed environment of the company’s operations. Justify what factors or groups of factors indicate this.
Step 1: Presentation of the stages of building a scenario of possible events (PPT)
Step 2: Problem to be solved: Determining the potential scenario of possible events for the company under the uncertainty of the environment.
Step 3: Divide the audience into groups. In the group, a person should be identified who will act as a leader – manager.
Step 4: Assign a wall or panel area to each group and provide the necessary materials (markers, paper, flipcharts, sticky notes, any other poster material). You can encourage participants to use the materials they have with them.
Step 5: Based on the assumptions from exercise 1 (step 4), the participants present the activities of a specific local company. For this purpose, a description should be developed and an assessment of the company’s current market situation should be carried out. Then they establish (identify) key spheres and factors influencing the company’s position on the market in task groups. Which factors from the macro-environment have the strongest impact on the company. The macro-environment consists of the political, economic, social, and technological demographic. Next, it is necessary to determine which microenvironmental factors have a decisive influence on the company’s operations. The micro-environment consists of: customers, suppliers, competitors, producers of substitute products.
Step 6: In each of the spheres, we identify factors, trends and phenomena that may affect the company in the future. For the smooth running of the exercise, it is recommended to select about 5 factors for each of the separate spheres.
Step 7: Set aside 45 minutes for the final brainstorming session between all groups.
Step 8: End with a discussion on the possibility of creating the most realistic scenario of possible company events.
Resources
Training rooms, pens, paper, flipchart, colorful markers, sticky notes, projector
